Impact of Distress on Class A Office Valuations

We saw a question posted on a commercial real estate web site inquiring about pricing differences and impacts that Distressed Real Estate is having on valuing Class A Properties. Here is the exact question that was posted on Loopnet. "How are brokers valuing class A properties with so many distressed properties thrown into the mix?"

Here are our thoughts:

The performing "Class A Market" is different than and priced differently than the "Distressed Market".

Recommending a value or proposed sales price takes a disciplined approach, comparing market trends and market demand. Our job as investment brokers is to be able to thoroughly evaluate the property-- including recent comparable sales, an evaluation of income and expenses to determine net operating income, replacement cost, and competitive positioning within the market. In addition understanding the motivations of the Seller, macro conditions in the marketplace, and financing costs and availability, also need thorough consideration today.
In our opinion, there are two distinct and different markets today. Class A properties, those that are stabilized with good tenants and good income, are scarce and are trading at surprisingly low cap rates. Distressed properties -- with income that won't support the debt service, or properties that are unfinished, or poorly performing, in areas with little demand, are being sought by a different category of Buyer. (The property with a "story" that was built or bought at the top of the market.) Distressed vs. Class A Institutional are really different markets and should be and are priced differently.

Class A doesn't just mean "expensive finishes" it means strong demand. In the current market environment, the best income-producing properties—those distinguished by superior quality of construction and the right location are likely to hold their value, keep their tenants and appreciate sooner and more than others. Early in this recession, pricing correction affected all properties, including those with the strongest operating performance and, in the case of new developments, the potential for such performance. But now it is back to fundamental evaluation and underwriting. Location, rent roll analysis, expense benchmarking, strong management and the like makes a real difference.

The relative attractiveness of good buildings to tenants and investors should allow them to stay ahead of the rest even in the challenging years ahead; their values have hopefully bottomed out as the broader market continues to find the bottom. Anecdotal evidence suggests that cap rates on scarce Class A properties with real income and good lease terms are therefore much sought-after assets attracting multiple offers and those cap rates have already come down.

The current cap rate decline starts with that fact that there is more capital (debt and equity) in the market than there is product. That factor alone has pushed values up and cap rates down-- but only for strong assets. Distress Buyers and Distress Prices are different than most well performing Class A properties. Distressed deals get picked over and trade at dramatic discounts to replacement costs; if they trade at all. For many of these deals the owner has no equity and getting quality information and timely decision making is very problematic.

Institutional investors are seeking quality NOI. We are reading reports and hearing about deals in northern California where pricing with cap rates as low as 6+% based for good assets. But if it isn't class A -- and if the lease terms are short and there is any scent of distress or credit quality risk -- or if the likelihood of vacancy and rent-up risk is high --then the cap rate is more like 9% -- and or price per square foot-- well below replacement. That said, there is a great deal of anxiety out there as to how far cap rates have fallen and does it make a risk adjusted sense for them to stay low? The current imbalance of available high quality class A properties and the amount of capital seeking to invest in them has created what a number of analysts and market participants call a "scarcity premium." We believe that the distressed properties that are coming to market are those with little hope of value recovery for the foreseeable future (more than three years). These are two distinct markets -- priced differently for different categories of buyers.

If you have a question that is more specific to a particular property or market - or if we can help you assess the value of your asset -- Class A or Distressed -- or something in between, feel free to contact us. We promise you professional and friendly service. jgray@ctbt.com or nanvary@ctbt.com

Slowing Market... What we must do to work smarter for our clients

So the market is slowing? What are we doing to work smarter on behalf of our clients? This is the crux of the soul searching that we commercial real estate brokers must be doing right now. Below are a few of the underlying questions that we must answer and which clients are already asking those of us who are listing agents for Landlords and Sellers. These are questions that must be asked and answered if you are going to provide good service in a soft market.

1. How do we review and present information to the Landlord or the Seller that communicates realistically what the market price or the market rent should be? Is it priced fairly and competitively?
2. What are we doing to feature the positive attributes of our client’s property? What differentiates the property and what is the value proposition for a future tenant?
3. What are we doing to maximize exposure?
4. How do we increase the number of prospects for a property?
5. How do we alert the other Brokers that this is a good deal and that we the owner and the listing broker are doing to be “broker and client friendly”?

I have been in this business nearly 30 years. Right now it is tough for sure and the market has changed dramatically, quickly and will probably get worse before it improves. But you don’t serve the client and help them achieve their goals by blaming the market and sticking to the techniques that worked when it was a “Seller or Landlord’s Market” and the average broker could get by as an “order taker”. It is time to work smarter and to make sure that properties show well and are priced at the market.

Here are a few steps to take so we as brokers work smarter on behalf of our clients.
1. Do a Broker’s Price Opinion. Base your analysis on recent sales or leases, including an analysis of incentives and concessions and how long a property was on the market. As importantly, list and describe competitive properties currently on the market. How many properties compete directly with the subject? What are they priced? What are the terms? Are there any incentives and concessions to the tenant or his broker? How much TI allowance was or will be provided?
2. Review the property in detail. What needs to happen for it to show well? Does it need to be cleaned up? Are there items of functional obsolescence? Will paint and carpet help? Do you need to order and evaluate 3rd party inspections for hazardous materials, termites, mold, Zoning, Code Violations, Conditions of Title and etc? Are there TIs that need to be planned and constructed? (Can you compare these matters with the other competitive offerings?) Prepare an estimate of the TI allowance and schedule to complete needed work if a tenant were found.
3. How descriptive and easily available is property information? Do property brochures and offerings have accurate financial expenses, floor plans, photos, aerials, maps and etc? How many web sites contain information about the property? Is the property advertised? Where does a prospect look to find information about the offering? Is information available in multiple media channels including the local newspaper, Craig’s List, Ecommerce sites such as LoopNet and Costar? Can someone Google their need –say 5,000 square foot office to lease in Sacramento-- and find your client’s building? Have you prepared a targeted marketing plan to address these matters and to “brainstorm and make a list to call” of who are the “low hanging fruit”, the likely prospects to reach out to?
4. Prospecting is about getting exposure to the kinds of business users and investors who would be most interested in the site. Are there alternative users—if it is a medical building with a vacancy have you also contacted labs, specialists, group practices, dentists, chiropractors, optometrists, and other allied health professionals? Have you reached out to the likely users and let them know that there is a good deal in the market? Can you provide free rent or moving expenses or lease buy-outs at existing properties to get a prospect interested?
5. Our business is not rocket science. If you can convince other brokers that the property offering is a good one and that they will be paid competitively and promptly if they bring a tenant or buyer to see the property you will get more showings and tours. What are you doing to communicate to the other Brokers that this is a good deal?

These are not guarantees in a slow market, but they will increase the likelihood of success. It is time to work smarter on behalf of our clients. There are no commissions to be made waiting for the phone to ring. Get busy, set realistic expectations with landlords and owners, price properties competitively, experiment with emerging media and marketing technologies, and learn to make good deals to attract buyers or tenants. Be nimble, be creative and work smarter.
If you would like to discuss this post or if you would like to discuss a Broker’s Price Opinion or a Targeted Marketing Plan , please call or email us Jim Gray at (916) 617-4255 jgray@naibt.com or Nahz Anvary at (916) 617-4257 nanvary@naibt.com