Western Real Estate Business Article on Sacramento Office Market

This month, June 2010, the magazine Western Real Estate Business has a profile on the Sacramento Market. With our colleagues at Cassidy Turley we contributed to the commercial real estate market review. Here are our particular observations on the office market in Sacramento..

Office

The Sacramento Valley office vacancy rose to 16.3 percent in first quarter 2010, as total availability increased 300,000 square feet for a total of 13.9 million square feet. Sublease space remained constrained, representing less than 3 percent of the total availability. The overall average asking rate for office space slid another $0.03 per square foot quarter over quarter to $1.85 per square foot full service in first quarter 2010.

Gross absorption was a mediocre 1 million square feet in first quarter 2010, about 25 percent less than its quarterly average in the past year and 40 percent below since 2005. Large tenants remain very scarce in the market, with most of the activity being dominated by smaller tenants less than 10,000 square feet. Net absorption, the change in occupied space, was a negative 368,000 square feet in first quarter after having reported positive 117,800 and 213,000 square feet in fourth and third quarters of 2009, respectively. Notably, during the past year, net absorption (which excludes new vacant construction) has actually held stable with just negative 50,000 square feet. The heavy dose of new unoccupied construction has really been a primary cause for the large increase in vacancy and availability in the past year.

The larger leases in first quarter 2010 included California State Board of Equalization for 76,502 square feet in Sacramento; ITT Technical Institute for 27,020 square feet in Rancho Cordova; Principal Financial Group for 24,645 square feet in El Dorado Hills; and Brown & Caldwell for 22,126 square feet in Rancho Cordova. There were also a handful of notable sales, led by CSAC Excess Insurance Authority’s acquisition of a 48,591-square-foot building in Folsom.
Office construction continued to trickle at the start of 2010 as projects funded more than 1 to 2 yearsr ago are now finally being completed. One building was delivered in first quarter: the 141,210-square-foot Sutter Health Facility in east Sacramento. This pace is already drastically cooler than last year when 1.9 million square feet were delivered and caused a massive swelling to the area’s vacancy rate. The development pipeline, however, is quickly diminishing as developers wait on the sidelines until market conditions become favorable. This slowdown is a double-edge sword, as it will help alleviate rising vacancy, but it will also take away construction jobs, a historical key source of job growth for the market.

The climate continues to remain favorable for tenants as there are still a lot of rental rate discounts being offered, plus concessions such as free rent and higher tenant-improvement allowance dollars from landlords. Lease terms also remain shorter, with the typical leases ranging between 1 and 3 years. The office sector will continue to battle the effects of the economic recession. The services and tech sectors lost a reported 10,000 jobs, and the job outlook ahead remains pretty grim. The forecast is that there will continue to be growing vacancy, slightly lower rents and very little new construction. The bright spots in the local office market have been and will likely continue to be owner-user sales financed with SBA long-term, low-interest loans and growth in healthcare and education.

Notably, the heavy majority of the 10 largest office leases transacted in 2009 were from the state’s government. Government is at risk as revenues from property and sales taxes continue to shrink, as the deficits become increasingly structural. Employees are being furloughed. Services are being cut back, and capital expenditures are being frozen. A great deal of the federal stimulus funds found their way to state and local government last year, but who knows what the political future holds? What happens to state and local government will have profound impacts. There is reason to be more optimistic, but being able to avoid a “double dip” is not certain.

— Jim Gray is a partner and Nahz Anvary an associate in Cassidy Turley BT Commercial’s Sacramento office.

Here is a link to the entire article:

http://westernrebusiness.com/articles/JUN10/highlight1.html

Impact of Distress on Class A Office Valuations

We saw a question posted on a commercial real estate web site inquiring about pricing differences and impacts that Distressed Real Estate is having on valuing Class A Properties. Here is the exact question that was posted on Loopnet. "How are brokers valuing class A properties with so many distressed properties thrown into the mix?"

Here are our thoughts:

The performing "Class A Market" is different than and priced differently than the "Distressed Market".

Recommending a value or proposed sales price takes a disciplined approach, comparing market trends and market demand. Our job as investment brokers is to be able to thoroughly evaluate the property-- including recent comparable sales, an evaluation of income and expenses to determine net operating income, replacement cost, and competitive positioning within the market. In addition understanding the motivations of the Seller, macro conditions in the marketplace, and financing costs and availability, also need thorough consideration today.
In our opinion, there are two distinct and different markets today. Class A properties, those that are stabilized with good tenants and good income, are scarce and are trading at surprisingly low cap rates. Distressed properties -- with income that won't support the debt service, or properties that are unfinished, or poorly performing, in areas with little demand, are being sought by a different category of Buyer. (The property with a "story" that was built or bought at the top of the market.) Distressed vs. Class A Institutional are really different markets and should be and are priced differently.

Class A doesn't just mean "expensive finishes" it means strong demand. In the current market environment, the best income-producing properties—those distinguished by superior quality of construction and the right location are likely to hold their value, keep their tenants and appreciate sooner and more than others. Early in this recession, pricing correction affected all properties, including those with the strongest operating performance and, in the case of new developments, the potential for such performance. But now it is back to fundamental evaluation and underwriting. Location, rent roll analysis, expense benchmarking, strong management and the like makes a real difference.

The relative attractiveness of good buildings to tenants and investors should allow them to stay ahead of the rest even in the challenging years ahead; their values have hopefully bottomed out as the broader market continues to find the bottom. Anecdotal evidence suggests that cap rates on scarce Class A properties with real income and good lease terms are therefore much sought-after assets attracting multiple offers and those cap rates have already come down.

The current cap rate decline starts with that fact that there is more capital (debt and equity) in the market than there is product. That factor alone has pushed values up and cap rates down-- but only for strong assets. Distress Buyers and Distress Prices are different than most well performing Class A properties. Distressed deals get picked over and trade at dramatic discounts to replacement costs; if they trade at all. For many of these deals the owner has no equity and getting quality information and timely decision making is very problematic.

Institutional investors are seeking quality NOI. We are reading reports and hearing about deals in northern California where pricing with cap rates as low as 6+% based for good assets. But if it isn't class A -- and if the lease terms are short and there is any scent of distress or credit quality risk -- or if the likelihood of vacancy and rent-up risk is high --then the cap rate is more like 9% -- and or price per square foot-- well below replacement. That said, there is a great deal of anxiety out there as to how far cap rates have fallen and does it make a risk adjusted sense for them to stay low? The current imbalance of available high quality class A properties and the amount of capital seeking to invest in them has created what a number of analysts and market participants call a "scarcity premium." We believe that the distressed properties that are coming to market are those with little hope of value recovery for the foreseeable future (more than three years). These are two distinct markets -- priced differently for different categories of buyers.

If you have a question that is more specific to a particular property or market - or if we can help you assess the value of your asset -- Class A or Distressed -- or something in between, feel free to contact us. We promise you professional and friendly service. jgray@ctbt.com or nanvary@ctbt.com